Karzai Leads in Afghan Vote; Count Shows Low Turnout
Aug. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Hamid Karzai held a narrow lead inearly returns from Afghanistan’s presidential election, raisingthe prospect of a run-off vote that might provoke furtherattacks and intimidation by Taliban militants.
The incumbent president had 38 percent of ballots counted,compared with 36 percent for Abdullah Abdullah, his formerforeign minister, Chief Electoral Officer Daoud Ali Najafi saidat a news briefing in Kabul yesterday. The Independent ElectionCommission has counted 550,000 votes at 10 percent of nationwidepolling stations.
A second vote would test the resolve of Afghans and thecountry’s security forces to overcome Taliban threats anddeliver a legitimate government that can confront militancy. Atleast 41 people were killed late yesterday when several bombsplanted in vehicles exploded in the southern city of Kandahar,causing buildings to collapse, the Associated Press reported.
Najafi said in an interview that votes “are verybalanced” between Karzai’s strongholds in the south andAbdullah’s in the north. He didn’t provide a geographicbreakdown. The official returns gave the first indication ofturnout, which at 5.5 million would be about 30 percent lessthan in Afghanistan’s first direct presidential election in 2004.
Reduced voter participation, plus more than 400 fraudreports filed with the United Nations-backed ElectoralComplaints Commission, may undercut the credibility of anelection the Obama administration hopes will strengthen theAfghan government’s battle against Taliban Islamic militants.
Mounting Casualties
Four U.S. soldiers in the NATO-led force in southernAfghanistan were killed by a roadside bomb yesterday, themilitary said. Last month’s casualty toll for U.S. and alliedtroops was the highest since they ousted the Taliban from powerin 2001.
Abdullah renewed his declaration that Karzai’s campaigntried to steal the election, which the president’s team denies.In the garden of his home, Abdullah showed reporters a video ofmen stuffing ballot boxes and a sheaf of voting papers markedfor Karzai that he said his supporters had recovered from anoperation by the president’s campaign.
Fraud Opportunities
Independent election monitoring teams from the Washington-based National Democratic Institute and the Free and FairElection Foundation of Afghanistan say opportunities for fraudwere increased in last week’s vote because Taliban influenceover many rural areas kept independent observers, as well asvoters, away from polling places.
The election commission’s portrayal of a close racecontrasted with Finance Minister Hazrat Omar Zakhilwal’sassertion to reporters Aug. 24 that a nearly complete vote countprovided to the cabinet shows Karzai winning with 68 percent.Karzai’s campaign office backed away from that claim.
With Karzai having lost popularity since winning 55 percentof votes in 2004, such a landslide “is far beyond theexpectation of Afghans,” and “if it were announced officiallyit would be a shock,” said Waliullah Rahmani, director of theKabul Center for Strategic Studies, a pro-democracy researchgroup. Two opinion surveys conducted last month by U.S.-basedresearch groups indicated Karzai would get 40 percent to 44percent of the vote.
‘Political Compromise’
The high-level declaration of a Karzai landslide “may bemeant to put pressure on other candidates to reach a politicalcompromise,” said Haroun Mir, director of Afghanistan’s Centerfor Research & Policy Studies, an independent think tank.
Abdullah argued against any political deal that mightdisguise electoral fraud. Addressing Afghans in his pressconference, he said he wouldn’t “compromise your rights inexchange for anything,” or “turn a blind eye to the big statemockery.”
Over eight years, Karzai and his international backers, ledby the U.S., have failed to keep Afghanistan’s war fromspreading or to improve the lives of most of its people.Measured by income, life expectancy and literacy, Afghanistan isthe world’s fifth-poorest country, according to a 2007 report bythe Afghan government and the UN.
Ill-Prepared
Abdullah says he has faith in the neutrality of the five-member Electoral Complaints Commission, which has three peopleappointed by the office of the UN secretary-general. Thecommission was formed four months ago to adjudicate electiondisputes and has had little time to prepare, said AurelieDemauge-Bost, a legal analyst with the European Union’s electionobserver team in Kabul.
At least 35 fraud complaints are “material to theoutcome” of the election, according to Grant Kippen, thecomplaints commission’s Canadian chairman. His agency can orderrecounts or a repeat of voting where it finds fraud, and thevote results will be declared final only after all fraudcomplaints have been investigated.
Karzai has said he would win with the absolute majority ofvotes required to avoid a runoff. While some independentelection monitors say a runoff might buttress the perceivedlegitimacy of the vote by demonstrating that it was competitive,a second round might be risky, Mir said in a phone interview.
“The low turnout in the south last week, and the Taliban’sability to attack voters, means that no one there will vote in asecond round,” he said.
To contact the reporter on this story:James Rupert in Kabul at jrupert3@ bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: August 25, 2009 20:02 EDTSource: Bloomberg
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