College Swine Flu Rates Drop 37% as Infections Peak
Nov. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Swine flu infection rates at U.S.colleges and universities fell 37 percent last week, adding moreevidence that the second wave of pandemic flu has peaked.
The drop followed a similar decline a week earlier,according to a survey of 243 college and universities by theAmerican College Health Association. In the latest report, theattack rate decreased to 13.4 cases per 10,000 students from21.3 cases, the group said in an e-mail today. The proportion ofcolleges with outbreaks fell to 90 percent from 95 percent.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said on Nov.20 that H1N1 infection rates had declined in all U.S.populations for the third consecutive week. It was the firstsustained drop since children and college students returned toschool in August. The next few days may test the retreat asfamilies gather for the Thanksgiving holiday.
“The peak clearly has passed,” said Ira Longini, aUniversity of Washington statistician who advises the U.S.government on flu, in an interview yesterday. “The realquestion now is have enough children been infected such thatthey’re immune, and there’s not enough susceptibility to sustaina third wave.”
The H1N1 strain disproportionately attacks children andyoung adults, according to the Atlanta-based CDC. About 90percent of deaths occurring among those younger than 64,according to the CDC. By contrast, the majority of deaths fromseasonal flu are among people older than 80.
Seasonal Flu
While most swine flu infections are no worse than seasonalflu, in rare cases the disease leads to severe illness and deathin otherwise health people.
About 36,000 people die each year in the U.S. from seasonalflu, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control andPrevention in Atlanta. Between 5 percent and 20 percent of thepopulation gets sick with the virus annually, leading to morethan 200,000 hospitalizations.
Swine flu spread across the globe at the fastest pace forinfluenza in four decades. More than 22 million people wereinfected and 3,900 died in the U.S. in the first six monthsafter the new strain emerged in April, according to the mostrecent estimates by the CDC.
More people with flu symptoms sought treatment from doctorsin October and November than at the February peak of a normalflu season, according to data on the CDC Web site. The yearlyU.S. flu season runs from November to March.
To contact the reporters on this story: Tom Randall in New Yorkat trandall6@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: November 25, 2009 12:33 ESTSource: Bloomberg
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